Thoughts on Iowa
Basically, no big surprise.
Despite how prideful they are about their early caucus and their high opinion of their influence on the overall primary process they are bound and determined to cement themselves as irrelevant to it. Neither Obama nor Huckabee is going to get the nod from their respective parties. So all they’ve really done is thrown both parties into disarray.
First, Huckabee. I know how he came to get his part there. The Iowa voter base is largely made up of ignorant desperate evangelicals. People smart enough to realize that they’ve been abused at the hands of the Republican party as promises have regularly been made and broken in issues that are important to them yet stupid enough to buy into Huckabee’s “I’m-just-like-you” populism. Add to this their unbelievable foolishness in believing that A) the fair tax is somehow better than the income tax we have now and B) that its implementation would actually mean an end to the income tax. Then, throw in a little promises of redistribution of wealth for farmers in the form of subsidies and you’ve got a made for Iowa candidate. He’s credible enough on abortion and on certain evangelical non-political issues that he was an easy pick for those people. Sad that they couldn’t look past that to see his lack of integrity and utter ignorance on foreign policy. That’s without going into his immigration issues, pardoning of felons, and of course his rabid statist views. None of that matters because according to the AFA, God has annointed him so that’s where we vote right?
I’m not that upset about Ron being in 5th. He was within a few percentage points of third at 10%. Given that every poll in Iowa but two were putting him at 4%, and one of the remaining two only had him at 7% that’s pretty good. All of that in the face of concerted media effort to avoid talking about him, and his not doing hardly anything in that state. Plus it feels good to skunk Rudy, even if the victory is a little hollow since he wasn’t really putting any effort in there.
Romney coming in second and netting only around 25% of the vote to show for the tidy sum (six million I believe?) he spent in Iowa is good too. It hurts his ‘electable’ argument pretty badly going into NH. This is going to hurt his early primary strategy and leave him netting smaller numbers making Rudy’s strategy look pretty smart on the front end. Time will tell.
Huckabee won’t repeat this performance – though he may hit some high numbers in other states awash with historically and politically ignorant evangelicals. Romney won’t be riding any tidal waves of success either. This means every state’s primaries will be important this year, and frankly there’s only one man right now with sufficient funds and support to make that happen.
As for the democrats – well – basically the same thing. I don’t see Obama getting sufficient national support to take the nomination. Edwards has been in Iowa so much over the last year he might be able to file for residency, and he still only managed to take second. He’s definitely not going anywhere. Hillary is the easy and obvious choice for the democrats here, but this might be a sign of some backlash against the idea of her coronation. She may have to fight, but I’m pretty sure in the end she’s going to get it. If nothing else, Iowa strongly suggests this is going to be a three-way race for the Democrats.
Whatever else happens, this is definitely going to be one of the more interesting election years.
For my fellow patriots supporting Ron Paul, and fighting for the cause of liberty in the face of such odds, do not be discouraged. Remember the words of Thomas Pain,
“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”
