This has got to be one of the best Ron Paul videos I’ve seen to date. It was very well produced, and the choice of images and song selection/tie-in are perfect; best of all – the information it is conveying is spot on. Take a couple of minutes and watch this video, I’m quite certain you’ll thank me.
There’s a lot of noise being made about the Iowa straw poll. Particularly about Mike Huckabee taking second. This has created quite a stir, and a lot of people find it very significant.
I do not. In fact, I don’t find the any of the top three placers to be significant.
First, Romney. He’s slick, and well presented. He may very well be in the lead right now, but it’s primarily because of name recognition and his slick appearance. There are far too many Americans who vote based on things like looks. He’s spent tons of money (mostly his own, since he isn’t raising all that much all things considered). He spent a lot in Iowa, bussed in a lot of people, and even went to various democratic campaign offices to recruit people to come vote for him, offering to buy them lunch. It’s no surprise I’m sure that I have no use for him anyway. Not saying he isn’t capable of winning the primary, I just don’t think his “win” is as significant as some would like to think.
Second, Huckabee. I know a lot of people who love this guy. I think he’s a nice guy, and I don’t mind listening to him talk most of the time. I was impressed by his courage in standing up for Creationism. However, I don’t need my president to uphold creationism. It’s not the role of the federal government to establish religion or to even define the origins of the world.
Sadly, in nearly every other way, Huckabee is barely an acceptable candidate. If Ron wasn’t running, I still wouldn’t vote for Huckabee. The biggest reason being his support of the FairTax. I’ve read a little too much history to buy into that mess. If it goes anywhere we’re in deep trouble.
So why is his polling insignificant? Well, he made a big deal in his speech about not bussing anyone in. About not buying votes. About not spending lots of money. Only that’s not entirely true. He took good advantage of what was essentially soft money from the FairTax organization. (Note: I don’t have anything against soft money. People should be able to support who they like.) The problem here is that his own campaign was referring people who needed a ride to the FairTax folks. So he was kind of talking out of both sides of his mouth there.
The FairTax group spent as much in Iowa as Huckabee did (about $150,000), made a 25-stop tour around the state to endorse their program and drum up support, and used about 20-30 busses to get people to the poll. This on top of the 1,850 tickets Huckabee purchased for voters. In addition, Huckabee was in the state for some time prior to the poll drumming up support himself.
Again, nothing wrong with this, but it does put some perspective on his placement. Especially when you add to that that Iowa is a strong midwestern evangelical state. They’re a lot more likely to support someone like Huckabee and Brownback than other swing states are, and I’m sure that’s a big part of why Romney spent so much money there.
Lastly, as we go on to the next candidate, Brownback is a Roman Catholic convert. At least one local evangelical group in Iowa was making an issue of this, campaigning to get Brownback supporters to support Huckabee instead because of this. All of these things contributed to Huckabee’s success – and I don’t think they are sustainable in other key states.
Brownback, I think, rode the same success wave as Huckabee for the most part, just not as well. Strong evangelical preference, etc. He has even less going for him than Huckabee does and will not last.
Now, Tancredo is an enigma. I really don’t understand the support of him, unless it was entirely due to his comment in his speech about how if he were going to war he’d be there to win it. He’d “take the gloves off” so to speak. That holds a lot of appeal to some Republicans. But this is the same guy who advises bombing civilian targets. While a sinking feeling in my gut tells me it’s probably true, I just can’t believe that a solid midwestern state like Iowa with a strong Evangelical (and even Catholic) traditions would support such lunacy.
Ron, I think had the biggest victory. Admittedly I’m biased. However, I’ve wavered back and forth on how big a victory it was. I was shaken at first by Huckabee’s success until I started reading the details of the various campaign efforts and the reports from people who were on-site. I’m not anymore, I’m quite certain the real win here went to Paul – though I doubt many will realize it.
Ron was only there about a week before the poll. He had almost no paid staff on the ground, the majority of the people there were unpaid volunteers. He didn’t canvas the state. He bought a couple ads with limited airtime for that week. His message was the main thing people got from him there. He paid for 800 tickets and got nearly twice that many votes. He had no fair-tax supporters to bus people in for him. He truly didn’t bus anyone. That is a truly impressive figure for people voting above and beyond his own campaign purchases.
Ron went from the expected 0 votes from some pundits leading into the poll, and the 2% number they keep claiming, to 10% in the Straw Poll. That’s major, it reflects the strength of his actual support, and is only the beginning.
It’s good news, and I believe now more than ever that we could win this.
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